What is the use of probability and statistics in an uncertain world?
Duration: 53 mins 59 secs
| Description: |
Plenary lecture – Recorded 17/04/09 9:30-10:30am, Centre for mathematical sciences MR2
Speaker: David Spiegelhalter |
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| Created: | 2009-07-23 13:57 |
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| Collection: | Beyond Part III - Young Researchers in Mathematics 2009 |
| Publisher: | University of Cambridge |
| Copyright: | A.C. Cullum Hanshaw |
| Language: | eng (English) |
| Abstract: | 800th Anniversary event. In an age that is obsessed with personal risk and scientific uncertainty, it would perhaps appear obvious that the disciplines of probability and statistics should be of central importance. And yet we frequently see misuse and misunderstanding of formal ways of analysing uncertainty, and general scepticism has not been helped by the apparent role of risk models in the recent collapse of the financial markets.
I shall look at some good and bad examples of current practice, and illustrate some tools that may help in the realistic communication of uncertainty. |
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