AUM2020 Global Workshop: Session 4: Modelling methods (1)

Duration: 1 hour 56 mins

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Description:	Session outline: 1. Validating disaggregate models at an aggregate scale in a case study of mobility tool ownership in Switzerland Dr Tim Hillel, Dr Janody Pougala, Patrick Manser, and Wolfgang Scherr (École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland) 2. Healthy, resilient, livable cities? Evidence from Helsinki's 2018-19 heatwaves Dr Athanasios Votsis, Dr Reija Ruuhela, and Dr Hilppa Gregow (Finnish Meteorological Institute) 3. Circular Economy meets Smart Cities: A general data model for waste flows in city regions Mr Jonathan Cohen and Dr Jorge Gil (Chalmers University of Technology) 4. Preparing offices for the age of distributed work. Evaluating the impacts of flexible designs in coping with the uncertain future demand for office space Dr Claudio Martani, Noemi Fiorot, Dr Andrea Gonzalz, Prof. Bryan T. Adey, and Dr Joris Van Wezemael (ETH Zürich) Discussant: Prof. Michael Batty (University College London) Host: Dr Jamil Nur (University of Cambridge)

Description:

Session outline:
1. Validating disaggregate models at an aggregate scale in a case study of mobility tool ownership in Switzerland
Dr Tim Hillel, Dr Janody Pougala, Patrick Manser, and Wolfgang Scherr (École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland)

2. Healthy, resilient, livable cities? Evidence from Helsinki's 2018-19 heatwaves
Dr Athanasios Votsis, Dr Reija Ruuhela, and Dr Hilppa Gregow (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

3. Circular Economy meets Smart Cities: A general data model for waste flows in city regions
Mr Jonathan Cohen and Dr Jorge Gil (Chalmers University of Technology)

4. Preparing offices for the age of distributed work. Evaluating the impacts of flexible designs in coping with the uncertain future demand for office space
Dr Claudio Martani, Noemi Fiorot, Dr Andrea Gonzalz, Prof. Bryan T. Adey, and Dr Joris Van Wezemael (ETH Zürich)

Discussant: Prof. Michael Batty (University College London)
Host: Dr Jamil Nur (University of Cambridge)


Created:	2021-02-03 18:04
Collection:	Martin Centre AUM2020: Modelling the New Urban World
Publisher:	University of Cambridge
Copyright:	The Martin Centre
Language:	eng (English)
Keywords:	Martin Centre; AUM2020; Online Global Workshop; Architecture; Modelling the New Urban World;


Abstract:	1. This talk presents the estimation and validation of a new mobility-tools ownership model which explicitly models the interactions between individual and household-level decisions. We focus in particular on the how we validate the fully disaggregate modelling approach against aggregate spatial control totals, through applying the model to a synthetic population for Switzerland. 2. Heat extremes are indicated by the IPCC as one of the key climate change impacts for cities around the world, whereas their inadequate treatment in the planning and management of the built environment has implications for urban resilience and livability. We present a study of the 2018-19 heatwave events in the Helsinki metropolitan region, discussing their spatiotemporal progression and vulnerability and exposure implications. We subsequently discuss that popular sustainability strategies can have pronounced conflicts with heatwave resilience, calling for a wider discussion on health, resilience, and livability in urban planning. 3. Research is needed to understand how Circular Economy strategies can be applied to territorial planning and more important what will the trade-offs be of embracing such paradigm. The aims of this project are to explore how secondary resources (waste) flow in city-regions can be modeled, and to develop tools of analysis to assess the performance in terms of re use of waste materials. The focus of the presentation will be the general data model developed to handle waste flows in cities illustrated in a series of real-world cases. 4. The potential growth in the home-office working mode poses a large uncertainty on the future demand for office space. Flexible offices can help limiting the negative effect of this uncertainty by allowing future changes of use, though they often cost more than traditional offices. To ensure that the investment in flexibility is proportioned to the risk it minimizes, the real options method is used in this work for modelling the uncertainty of future demand for office space and estimating its effect on stakeholders in the long-term. The method is tested on an example mixed-tenants office building in Zurich.

Abstract:

1. This talk presents the estimation and validation of a new mobility-tools ownership model which explicitly models the interactions between individual and household-level decisions. We focus in particular on the how we validate the fully disaggregate modelling approach against aggregate spatial control totals, through applying the model to a synthetic population for Switzerland.

2. Heat extremes are indicated by the IPCC as one of the key climate change impacts for cities around the world, whereas their inadequate treatment in the planning and management of the built environment has implications for urban resilience and livability. We present a study of the 2018-19 heatwave events in the Helsinki metropolitan region, discussing their spatiotemporal progression and vulnerability and exposure implications. We subsequently discuss that popular sustainability strategies can have pronounced conflicts with heatwave resilience, calling for a wider discussion on health, resilience, and livability in urban planning.

3. Research is needed to understand how Circular Economy strategies can be applied to territorial planning and more important what will the trade-offs be of embracing such paradigm. The aims of this project are to explore how secondary resources (waste) flow in city-regions can be modeled, and to develop tools of analysis to assess the performance in terms of re use of waste materials. The focus of the presentation will be the general data model developed to handle waste flows in cities illustrated in a series of real-world cases.

4. The potential growth in the home-office working mode poses a large uncertainty on the future demand for office space. Flexible offices can help limiting the negative effect of this uncertainty by allowing future changes of use, though they often cost more than traditional offices. To ensure that the investment in flexibility is proportioned to the risk it minimizes, the real options method is used in this work for modelling the uncertainty of future demand for office space and estimating its effect on stakeholders in the long-term. The method is tested on an example mixed-tenants office building in Zurich.

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