Determining optimal interventions during pandemics - how do we define the appropriate objective function?

Duration: 17 mins 58 secs

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Description:	Mike Tildesley (University of Warwick) 22 February 2022 – 13:40 to 14:00


Created:	2022-02-28 13:01
Collection:	Behaviour and Policy During Pandemics: Models and Methods
Publisher:	Isaac Newton Institute
Copyright:	Mike Tildesley
Language:	eng (English)


Abstract:	During infectious disease outbreaks, policy makers regularly consult mathematical modellers for policy advice regarding the role of intervention policies in mitigating the risks associated with disease spread. However, in order for models to determine an optimal intervention, it is crucial to determine the objective of control. If policy makers consider that the objective is to minimise the direct public health impacts of the disease, then the optimal policy will generally be one of severe control. However, severe interventions may result in other negative impacts, such as economic losses, educational losses in the event of school closures, non-pandemic health impacts as well as harms to mental health and well-being. In order for models to robustly devise an optimal policy, it is therefore necessary to define an objective function which can be minimised. Defining an objective function is non-trivial as it requires assigning a cost across multiple sectors. However, this problem should be addressed now in order to inform contingency planning for future pandemics.

Abstract:

During infectious disease outbreaks, policy makers regularly consult mathematical modellers for policy advice regarding the role of intervention policies in mitigating the risks associated with disease spread. However, in order for models to determine an optimal intervention, it is crucial to determine the objective of control. If policy makers consider that the objective is to minimise the direct public health impacts of the disease, then the optimal policy will generally be one of severe control. However, severe interventions may result in other negative impacts, such as economic losses, educational losses in the event of school closures, non-pandemic health impacts as well as harms to mental health and well-being. In order for models to robustly devise an optimal policy, it is therefore necessary to define an objective function which can be minimised. Defining an objective function is non-trivial as it requires assigning a cost across multiple sectors. However, this problem should be addressed now in order to inform contingency planning for future pandemics.

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