Kim Serota: Normative Honesty and Frequent Lying

Duration: 20 mins 53 secs

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Created:	2015-09-28 17:50
Collection:	Decepticon 2015
Publisher:	University of Cambridge
Copyright:	Dr S. Van der Zee
Language:	eng (English)
Keywords:	Deception; Morality; Lie frequency;


Abstract:	Research has shown that the distribution of lie production across most populations is highly skewed. Most people tell few lies and among those who lie more frequently, a very small portion account for a disproportionately high percentage of lies told. We identify two primary groups within a given population: (a) the normatively honest and (b) frequent liars. Normatively honesty people tell a few, usually inconsequential lies during a typical day or week, or as a subset of a finite number of message transactions. We determine what is normative for a population by applying the law of rare events, which dictates that the few lies told by normatively honest people will be Poisson- distributed. Lying beyond the level predicted by the law constitutes frequent lying. Among frequent liars, we identify two secondary groups: (b1) common liars and (b2) prolific liars. Evidence from 10 prior studies conducted in the US, the UK, and the Netherlands indicates frequent lies have a scale-free distribution (i.e. the distribution is distinct and reproducible regardless of the break point between normative honesty and frequent lying). Consistent with the Pareto principle and Zipf’s law, which both describe production efficiency, prolific liars are a small, highly productive subset of liars. Though often referred to as the “80-20 rule” the Pareto principle more accurately distinguishes the vital few from the trivial many but does not dictate the extent of their productivity. Data from the 10 studies indicate about 20% of frequent liars produce 50% of the frequent lies. The rate is not higher (i.e. 80-20) because prolific lying is constrained by the principle that lies must be infrequent to be effective. Select behavioral differences and key population variations in the existing studies are discussed. Research on situational and IMT2 propositional differences between normatively honest people and frequent liars is proposed.

Abstract:

Research has shown that the distribution of lie production across most populations is highly skewed. Most people tell few lies and among those who lie more frequently, a very small portion account for a disproportionately high percentage of lies told. We identify two primary groups within a given population: (a) the normatively honest and (b) frequent liars. Normatively honesty people tell a few, usually inconsequential lies during a typical day or week, or as a subset of a finite number of message transactions. We determine what is normative for a population by applying the law of rare events, which dictates that the few lies told by normatively honest people will be Poisson- distributed. Lying beyond the level predicted by the law constitutes frequent lying. Among frequent liars, we identify two secondary groups: (b1) common liars and (b2) prolific liars. Evidence from 10 prior studies conducted in the US, the UK, and the Netherlands indicates frequent lies have a scale-free distribution (i.e. the distribution is distinct and reproducible regardless of the break point between normative honesty and frequent lying). Consistent with the Pareto principle and Zipf’s law, which both describe production efficiency, prolific liars are a small, highly productive subset of liars. Though often referred to as the “80-20 rule” the Pareto principle more accurately distinguishes the vital few from the trivial many but does not dictate the extent of their productivity. Data from the 10 studies indicate about 20% of frequent liars produce 50% of the frequent lies. The rate is not higher (i.e. 80-20) because prolific lying is constrained by the principle that lies must be infrequent to be effective. Select behavioral differences and key population variations in the existing studies are discussed. Research on situational and IMT2 propositional differences between normatively honest people and frequent liars is proposed.

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